Exit Polls Predict NDA Landslide in Bihar
Multiple exit polls project a commanding victory for the NDA in the Bihar assembly elections, signaling a major setback for the Mahagathbandhan ahead of the final results.
PATNA: As voting in the second and final phase of the Bihar assembly elections concluded on Tuesday, a broad spectrum of exit polls indicated a decisive victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). If confirmed on counting day, the verdict would pave the way for a third consecutive term for the alliance.
With 122 seats required for a majority in the 243-member assembly, exit polls by nearly all major agencies project the NDA crossing the threshold by a large margin, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB)—led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) along with Congress and Left parties—is expected to fall significantly short.
Polling across the two phases on November 4 and 11 recorded turnout above 65%, shaped by debates on caste coalitions, unemployment, welfare delivery, and governance under Nitish Kumar. Voting was largely peaceful, according to the Election Commission.
Exit Poll Consensus
Based on projections from nine agencies—including Matrize, Chanakya Strategies, Dainik Bhaskar, and P-Marq—the NDA is expected to secure 140–160 seats, an increase compared to its 125 seats in 2020. The MGB is forecast between 80–100 seats, indicating a reversal of its gains since the last election cycle.
New entrant Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is predicted to win 0–5 seats, failing to make a significant electoral impact.
Key Exit Poll Figures
- News18 Mega Exit Poll: NDA 140–150; MGB 85–95; JSP 0–5. JD(U) is projected as the single largest party.
- Matrize–IANS: NDA 147–167; MGB 70–90. Indicates significant support from women voters.
- P-Marq: NDA 142–162; MGB 80–98; JSP 1–4. Suggests strong consolidation of BJP’s vote base.
- Chanakya Strategies: NDA 130–138; MGB 100–108. Notes MGB strength in traditional strongholds but insufficient statewide momentum.
- People’s Insight: NDA 133–148; MGB 87–102. LJP (RV) predicted to gain 9–12 seats.
- Dainik Bhaskar: NDA 145–160; MGB 73–91. Termed a “landslide” scenario.
- Poll Diary: Positioned as an outlier, forecasting an overwhelming NDA majority of 184–209 seats.
Caste Dynamics and Party Performance
Several exit polls suggest that JD(U) may outperform BJP within the NDA, with projected tallies of 55–75 seats compared to BJP’s 55–78. Analysts attribute JD(U)’s performance to Nitish Kumar’s influence among Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and Kurmi voters.
For the Mahagathbandhan:
- RJD is projected between 50–79 seats,
- Congress between 9–20,
- Left parties 11–15.
Smaller parties such as the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and AIMIM may secure 1–5 seats collectively.
JSP’s Underwhelming Debut
Despite aggressive campaigning by Prashant Kishor, Jan Suraaj failed to convert outreach into votes. Pollsters cite vote fragmentation in opposition regions without corresponding gains.
Economic and Political Ripples
Financial markets reacted positively to the exit poll trends, with analysts expecting short-term gains driven by policy continuity. Within the MGB, exit poll signals have reportedly triggered internal debates over strategy and candidate selection.
As the state awaits the official count on November 14, observers caution that exit polls have shown mixed accuracy in past Bihar elections. Nevertheless, the broad consensus points to an electorate favouring continuity over change.
