Exit Polls Predict Big Win for NDA in Assam
Exit polls project NDA crossing majority mark with ease; record turnout and single-phase polling mark key election highlights.
GUWAHATI- Exit polls released on Wednesday indicate that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is likely to secure a decisive victory in the 2026 Assam Assembly elections, potentially paving the way for a third consecutive term in office.
Most projections suggest the alliance will comfortably cross the majority mark of 64 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly. The government is currently led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.
According to estimates by multiple polling agencies, the NDA’s tally is projected to range between 82 and 101 seats. In contrast, the Congress-led opposition alliance is expected to trail significantly, with projections placing it between 23 and 40 seats. Other parties, including the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), are likely to secure only a marginal share.
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The election also witnessed a record voter turnout of 85.96%, the highest in the state’s history. This surpasses previous participation levels recorded in 2016 and 2021. Among districts, South Salmara-Mankachar reported the highest turnout at 95.58%, while West Karbi Anglong recorded the lowest at 75.25%. Notably, female voter turnout slightly exceeded male participation, indicating broad-based engagement.
The campaign was largely framed around leadership, with Sarma representing the ruling alliance and Gaurav Gogoi emerging as a key face of the opposition. Post-poll surveys suggest Sarma retains a lead in chief ministerial preference, with over half of respondents favouring his continuation in office.
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In a departure from previous elections, the 2026 Assembly polls were conducted in a single phase on April 9 across all constituencies, a move that officials said streamlined logistics and security arrangements.
The Election Commission of India has scheduled the counting of votes for May 4, 2026. Chief Electoral Officer Anurag Goel stated that strong rooms are under continuous CCTV surveillance and secured by Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF). Political parties, including the Congress, have also deployed monitoring teams to oversee the process.
While exit polls offer an early indication of voter sentiment, final results will determine whether the projections translate into an electoral mandate or if the state witnesses a shift in political dynamics.
